Smokey Joe’s NFL Week 3 Picks
September 27th, 2009
This week’s theme: matchups.
Still…don’t bet these picks. Seriously.
| VISIT | LINE | HOME | Pick/Comment |
| CLE | +14 | BAL | Baltimore and lay the points. I hatehatehate to lay two touchdowns in the NFL but on top of a typically oppressive Ravens defense, they suprisingly lead the AFC (#2 in the NFL) with 34.5 ppg. Cleveland struggled to score in week 2 against Denver and things will be even tougher in this division matchup. Look for Baltimore to cover…barely. |
| NYG | -7 | TB | New York and lay the points. The Giants defense is stingy against the pass (157 ypg) so Tampa will try to run the ball to control the game and give themselves a change to win. Cadillac Williams will help but NY has too many playmakers on both sides of the ball. |
| KC | +8.5 | PHI | Philadelphia and lay the points. There seems to be a lot of disagreement about this game; the line ranges from 7.5 to 9. Kevin Kolb will likely find little challenge against Kansas City’s pass defense. |
| WAS | -6.5 | DET | Washington and lay the points. I hesitate on this one because through the first two games, it looks like Detroit is ready to start turning the corner. The Redskins seem to be a bit dysfunctional but too much talent for Detroit in this blacked out Lions home game. |
| JAC | +3.5 | HOU | Houston and lay the points. A battle of enigma teams. Not sure whether the Jags are rising or falling, giving Indy a scare in week 1 before looking horrible against the Cards in week 2. Houston looke flat against the Jets before racking up 34 points against the Titans. Homefield — and Andre Johnson — get the nod in Houston. |
| SF | +7 | MIN | Minnesota and lay the points. The 49ers are a playoff-caliber defense, ranked 1st in the NFC in rushing yards allowed (53 ypg allowed). But they haven’t gone against Adrian Peterson and this dynamic Vikings offense (168.5 rushing ypg). Vikes cover easily at home. |
| ATL | +4.5 | NE | Atlanta and the points. Matt Ryan is on the rise and — dare I say it? — Tom Brady is a huge question mark for the Pats. Mike Smith’s bend-but-don’t-break defense (349.5 yards per game allowed but only 13.5 ppg) has been a surprise after replacing 5 defensive starters from last year’s playoff squad. Until Brady proves he’s really back, confidence in New England is low. |
| TEN | +2 | NYJ | Jets and lay the points. Rex Ryan has given the Jets an identity and rookie Mark Sanchez appears to be, if not the second coming of Broadway Joe, a solid NFL starter. Still not sure what to expect from Tennessee, who has been inconsistent in weeks 1 and 2. Jets get the nod at home. |
| GB | -6.5 | STL | Green Bay and lay the points. The Rams showed some signs of life last week but they’re averaging just over a field goal per game so far this year. Green Bay will rebound after last week’s embarassing loss to Cincinnati and their 22.5 ppg will trump the Rams’ 3.5, even if you spot them a touchdown. More embarassment for St Louis fans. |
| NO | -6 | BUF | New Orleans and lay the points.Drew Brees and his gaudy 132.9 passer rating against a Buffalo pass defense ranked next to last in the league in passing yards (332/game) and touchdowns (2.5/game) allowed. |
| CHI | -2.5 | SEA | Chicago and lay the points. One word has torpedoed Seattle’s chances in this game: injuries. With six starters out, incluidng quarterback Matt Hassellbeck and three linebackers, the Bears and Matt Fortge should control the game and win by a touchdown, even at Qwest field, one of the tougher places to play for visiting teams. |
| MIA | +5.5 | SD | Miami and the points. I’d feel better if they ‘Phins were getting a full touchdown but San Diego has yet to show they can effectively stop the run, allowing 139 ypg so far in 2009. Miami’s strategy is clear: control the game by running the ball and rely on the Wild-phin for big plays. The Chargers will either stand up and claim their pre-season position as Super Bowl favorites or sink back into the Norv-ian morass of dysfunction. |
| DEN | -1.5 | OAK | Denver and lay the points. The Raiders still cannot afford to trust JaMarcus Russell and their wide receivers to carry the load on offense and they’ll have to continue to rely on the run against their hated AFC rivals. Look for Kyle Orton to have a breakout day against an aggressive, but as yet unproven, Raiders defense. |
| PIT | -3.5 | CIN | Pittsburgh and lay the points. The Steeler’s run offense has been anemic, averaging just 70.5 yards per game. The Bengals run defense has been surprisingly good, ranking in the top half of AFC defenses against the run. Still |
| IND | +2.5 | ARI | Arizona and lay the points at home. The Cards started finding their offensive rhythm in week two but Indy leads the NFL in pass defense (helped, of course, by playing the Dolphins’ run first, last, and always stratgegy in week 2). Home field and the Colts short week will make the difference. |
| CAR | +8.5 | DAL | Dallas and lay the points. Cowboys second in the NFC in scoring (33 ppg) and is leading the NFL in rushing, averaging 184.5 ypg. Panthers allow 32.5 through two and are dead last against the rush in the NFC, allowing 168 ypg. |
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