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Smokey Joe’s NFL Week 8 Picks

October 30th, 2009
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Picks presented for entertainment purposes only.  If you don’t know by now that you should never bet my picks, there ain’t much help for you.

Seriously…do NOT bet these picks.  Really.  I mean, what’s wrong with you?!?

Week 8 Byes:  Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Washington.

VISIT LINE HOME Pick/Comment
DEN +3.5 BAL Denver and the points.  Baltimore’s defense has become suddenly pedestrian (and old), ranked in the bottom half of the league, allowing 21.7 points per game, 10.7 more than Denver’s stingy 11.0.  Baltimore’s offense has carried the load, averaging 28.2 ppg, 3rd best in the AFC (#5 in the NFL).  Denver, led by suprisingly effective QB Kyle Orton, is averaging 22.2 ppg and more importantly, Orton is not making the big mistake.  The Ravens are playing to save a season that started promising but has lost 3 in a row.  But too much Bronco defense will give 2nd year man Joe Flacco fits.
SEA +10 DAL Dallas and lay the points.  The Cowboys offense has started to find its balance.  Still ranked #4 in rushing, averaging 153.3. yards per game, QB Tony Romo completed 65% of his passes, averaged more than 10 yards per attempt, and threw for 5 TDs and no interceptions in the past 2 games.  As a result of this offensive balance, the Cowboys are averaging more than 400 ypg.  The ‘Hawks seem snakebit with regard to injuries and Dallas rolls at home.
STL +4 DET Detroit and lay the points.  Lions rookie QB Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both practiced this week and indications are that both look to start Sunday against the Rams.  While Stafford continues to suffer through rookie growing pains, the Lions are far more dynamic with him and Johnson on the field and St Louis is allowing 30.1 ppg.  Detroit’s defense has struggled, allowing 31.3 ppg but the Rams offense remains horrible, one of two teams in the league to average fewer than 10 ppg on offense (8.6, along with Oakland at 8.9).
MIA +3.5 NYJ Miami and the points.  The Dolphins eked out a week 5 31-27 win over the Jets on the strength of their offensive line.  And make no mistake…that offensive line is the engine of Miami’s Wildcat.  Chad Henne  emerged as a bona fide NFL quarterback in that game, just his second NFL start.  Mark Sanchez has struggled of late, throwing 8 picks against just 2 TDs in the past 4 weeks.  The nadir was a 10-29, 5 interception day against Buffalo before rebounding last week in Oakland.  But the Dolphins are not the Raiders.  Another long day for Mark Sanchez, without Leon Washington.
SF +13 IND Indianapolis and lay the points.  The Colts, led by the NFL’s top-rated QB Peyton Manning, are a well-oiled scoring machine.  Manning is completing 72.6% of his passes with a 15:4 TD to interception ratio and a 114.5 QB rating.  The surprise may be Indy’s defense, ranked #2 in scoring defense, allowing just 12.8 ppg.  The 49ers just won’t be able to keep up with the Colts’ offense…and neither will the scoreboard operators.
CLE +13.5 CHI Chicago and lay the points.  Coming off last week’s embarassing 45-10 loss to Cincinnati, the Bears will take their frustrations out on lowly Cleveland at Soldier field.  Bears win by 17.
HOU -3.5 BUF Buffalo and the points.  The Texans appear to be for real, led by the NFL’s #4 rated passer, Matt Schaub.  But playing in Buffalo on the first weekend in November is very different than playing in the friendly — and warm — confines of Reliant Park.
NYG -0.5 PHI New York and lay the (fraction of a) point.  The Giants have cooled down the past two weeks, losing to Arizona 24-17 in week 7 and the 48-27 shellacking at the hands of New Orleans in week 6.  The Eagles bounced back on Monday night after their humiliating loss to Oakland in week 6.  Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are both in the top 12 rushing, with 464 and 455 yards, respectively.  The Eagles have been tough against the run, allowing fewer than 100 yards per game.  This has the makings of a classic NFC East slobberknocker with the winner climbing into at least a first place tie (depending on the outcome of the Dallas game).  
OAK +16.5 SD San Diego and lay the points.  Since the hard-fought week 1 battle (ultimately won by SD 24-20), these two teams have gone in dramatically different directions.  The Chargers have gotten their mid-season swagger on and I’m running out of adjectives for how bad the Raiders are.  Anytime you see a spread of more than 2 touchdowns, it’s a giant red flag.  The Chargers are getting 16.5 for a reason…they win by 3 touchdowns or more.
JAC +3 TEN Jacksonville and the points.  Tennessee has been surprisingly good against the run, allowing just 95 ypg.  But they are dead last in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 310.7 ypg, more than 48 yars more than the next-to-last team, the Jaguars.  Look for a big day for David Garrard as the Jags roll.
CAR +10.5 ARI Arizona and lay the points.  The Cardinals will test the Panthers #1 rated pass defense (150 ypg), with Kurt Warner and crew #2 in the NFC, behind only New Orleans with 270 passing yards per game.  But it will be the Cardinals suddenly-stout defense that will carry the day.  Oh, and look for about a bazillion Jake Delhomme turnovers, considering Matt Moore (who?) backs up the NFL leader in interceptions.
MIN +3 GB Minnesota and the points.  In Brett Bowl II, Favre heads back to Cheeselandia for the first time as the Viking signal caller.  As if those stakes weren’t high enough, a Packers win moves them to within a half a game of the NFC North lead; a Vikes victory gives them a 2.5 game lead in the division.  The frozen tundra won’t bother Favre but the Packers NFC-leading scoring defense might.  Classic Black-and-Blue division game.
ATL +10.5 NO New Orleans and lay the points.  New Orleans #1 scoring offense is averaging 10 points per game more than #2 Indianapolis.  Monday night in the Superdome for the undefeated Saints.  Mayhem — and Drew Brees — reigns.  Saints by 17 (minimum).

Joe Mayes NFL

Week 7: Struggling back toward mediocrity

October 29th, 2009
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This week’s results: 6-6-1.  After last week, .500 never felt so good.

Season to date: 49-53-1 (48%). 

Nailed It! calls of the week:

  • “Cincinnati and lay the points [+0.5 v. Chicago].  This week will determine if the Bengals are for real or not.”  The verdict is in (for now):  the Bengals are for real.
  • “Buffalo and the points [+7.5 v Carolina].  Signs of life last week against the Jets and Carolina is still a ship in search of a rudder.”  My only question about this game and the Panthers going forward:  how in the h*ll does Jake Delhomme still have a job in the NFL?
  • “Peyton and company pick up where they left off and will run the Rams by three TDs or more.”  It’s almost too easy to pick with Peyton and against the Rams.  Putting the two together was a no-brainer of epic proportions.  Only downside was I should have said, “…by five TDs or more.”

Aw, Crap! calls of the week:

  •  “Oakland and the points.  In the Black Hole, riding the wave of last week’s win over the Eagles.  Either that or wishful thinking.”  Yep.  It was wishful thinking.
  • “Matt Ryan and company have been not only impressive on offense but their defense has been impressive.  Can’t say the same about Jerry’s ‘boys.”  Another possible case of wishful thinking because of my Cowboys hatred.

New Categories of the Week calls of the week:

  • Kiss My Sister:  SF +3 against Houston.  Final score:  Houston 24, SF 21.
  • Still Holding My Breath:  “New Orleans and lay the points [-6.5 v Miami].”  Wow…what a crazy game.  The Saints come out 6-0 but, wow…  For my money, the Dolphins are the NFL’s most entertaining team.
  • So Last Year WASN’T  a Fluke?:  The Giants may have been somewhat flat after their rumble in the Super Dome in week 6 but the Cardinals defense looks like it might just be enough to carry the NFC West after all.
  • Proof I’m an Idiot:  “KC got off the schneid last week against moribund Washington and I’m not sold on the Chargers just yet.”  Final score:  SD 37, KC 7.  Only thing wrong with my prediction?  I completely forgot that the Chiefs suck.
  • Still Not Convinced I’m an Idiot?:  “Tampa Bay and the points.  NE wins but not by 15.5.”  Never, ever, ever pick a terrible football team, regardless of a sucker spread (+2 TD).  It’s what the sucker spread is for…to sucker in idiots like me.

Freak Stat of the Week:

·         Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 16.

·         Let me repeat that:  Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 16.  More than Tom Brady (15), Peyton Manning (15), Drew Brees (14), Carson Palmer (13), or anyone else in the NFL.  Yes, the entire NFL.  And, yes…that Matt Schaub of the second-place Houston Texans (4-3).

Lessons for Next Week:

This week’s theme:  Quarterbacks Matter.

·         Tampa and Tennessee have officially thrown in their 2009 towels.  Tampa has swapped one Josh for another to see if their first-round pick, Freeman, might actually have a future as an NFL quarterback (unlike Johnson).  But at least they’re showing some optimism.  Jeff Fisher seems to have named Vince Young as the Titans starter more to silence critics who’ve demanded Kerry Collins be replaced than out of any hope that Young can lead the Titans to victory.  Because, frankly, I’m not sure he can.

·         Oakland and Carolina are going an entirely different direction than the Bucs and Panthers.  They’re sticking with their quarterbacks, despite QB ratings of 47.2 (Russell) and 56.5 (Delhomme).  And if you wonder how bad Russell is, his passer rating is 9.3 less than Delhomme, despite the fact that the Panthers signal caller has thrown 5 more interceptions.  If you wonder how bad Delhomme has been, he’s thrown more interceptions than Russell, Byron Leftwich, and Kyle Orton, combined.  Suffice it to say that neither should be starting SEC games, let alone NFL.

·         Matt Stafford has a passer rating of 65.5 compared to Mark Sanchez’ 61.5.  Sanchez also has 4 more interceptions than the Lions #1 pick.  Jes’ sayin’.

·         Highest rated NFL quarterbacks, 2009 (through week 7) edition:

§  Peyton Manning (114.5)

§  Aaron Rodgers (110.8)

§  Drew Brees (106.9)

§  Matt Schaub (104.4)

§  Ben Roethlisberger (102.6)

§  Brett Favre (102.2).

In the immortal words of Joe Raposo and Jon Stone, “One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn’t belong, Can you tell which thing is not like the others, By the time I finish my song?”

·         Kyle Orton (of Denver, formerly of Chicago) has a passer rating 17.2 points higher than that of Jay Cutler (of Chicago, formerly of Denver), 100.1-82.9.  Orton has 1 interception to Cutler’s 10.  Denver, with Orton at the helm, is 6-0 and Chicago, with Cutler under center, is 3-3.  Again…jes’ sayin’.

 

As always, next week’s picks will be posted on Friday.  Email your picks to me at JoeMayes981@gmail.com before Sunday’s kickoff.  If you beat me for the year, you’ll win a Complete360 t-shirt of your choice (check choices at Complete360.net).

And remember, John Fox:  Only you can prevent Jake Delhomme.

 

~ Smokey Joe

 

Joe Mayes NFL

Smokey Joe’s NFL Week 7 Picks

October 24th, 2009
2 comments

If you’re tempted to bet these picks, just go back and look at the Week 6 results.  If you still insist on betting these picks, just flush your money directly down the toilet.  It’ll save time.

On to the Week 7 picks:

VISIT LINE HOME Pick/Comment
SF +3.0 HOU San Francisco and the points.  Mike Singletary wills the 49ers to a road win even if he has to take the field to make it happen.
SD -5.0 KC Kansas City and the points.  KC got off the schneid last week against moribund Washington and I’m not sold on the Chargers just yet.
GB -9.5 CLE Green Bay and lay the points.  Cleveland can take the field without hurting themselves…barely.
IND -14.5 STL Indianapolis and lay the points.  Peyton and company pick up where they left off and will run the Rams by three TDs or more.
NE -15.5 TB Tampa Bay and the points.  Patriots have been up and down…this line has more to do with the 59-0 shellacking they laid on the Titans than with the quality of the Bucs.  NE wins but not by 15.5.
MIN +5.5 PIT Minnesota and the points.  The undefeated Minnesota Bretts is getting almost a touchdown against a Steelers team that didn’t exactly impress against the Browns in week 6?  Really?
BUF +7.5 CAR Buffalo and the points.  Signs of life last week against the Jets and Carolina is still a ship in search of a rudder.
NYJ -6.5 OAK Oakland and the points.  In the Black Hole, riding the wave of last week’s win over the Eagles.  Either that or wishful thinking.
ATL +4.5 DAL Atlanta and the points.  Matt Ryan and company has been not only impressive on offense but their defense has been impressive.  Can’t say the same about Jerry’s ‘boys.
NO -6.5 MIA New Orleans and lay the points.  The NFL’s highest powered offense will be more than a TD too much for the ‘Phins.
CHI +0.5 CIN Cincinnati and lay the points.  This week will determine if the Bengals are for real or not.
ARI +7.5 NYG New York and lay the points.  Rebound week for the Giants after a tough loss at New Orleans in week 6.
PHI -7.5 WAS Philadelphia and lay the points.  After last week’s loss at Dysfunction Junction (West), the Eagles win by more than 2 TDs at Dysfunction Junction (East).
       
       
    BYE Denver, Detroit, Tennessee (mercifully), Seattle, Jacksonville, and Baltimore.

Joe Mayes NFL

Week 6: The Wheels Come Off (vacation edition)

October 24th, 2009
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This week’s results: 4-10.  And in week 6, the wheels fell off…

Season to date: 43-47 (48%). 

Nailed It! calls of the week:

Not many Nailed It!’s this weekend…

  • “New England and lay the points…look for a Titans emotional let-down…rare in the NFL following a loss.”  After a disappointing 31-9 loss to the Colts in week 5, the Titans suffered not only an emotional let-down…they suffered a complete mental collapse.  They suffered the worst shut out loss in 33 years (the Rams beat the Falcons by an identical score in 1976), giving up 59 to the Pats in the Foxboro snow.  Aw, who are we kidding?  The Titans didn’t just give up 59 to New England.  They gave up, period.
  • “Matt Ryan has thrown 7 TDs, has just 2 picks, and has been sacked just twice en route to a 102.9 passer rating.  The Bears are allowing 226.0 ypg through the air so look for a lot of sparks in Atlanta this week.”  Ryan wasn’t spectacular – 19 for 33, 185 yards and two picks – but also had 2 TDs and the Falcons were 2-for-2 scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone (compared to 1 for 4 for the Bears).  Sparks enough for a 21-14 Monday night victory over the Bears.

Aw, Crap! calls of the week:

…and too many “Aw, Crap!’s” to count, especially in a vacation week.

Freak Stat of the Week:

·         In their 13-9 week 6 loss to Oakland, the Eagles were the first team in three years to fail to score a touchdown against the previously generous Raiders defense.

·         Another bonus from my buddy, Gregg Easterbrook at the Four-letter:  “Eddie Royal of Denver and Darren Sproles of San Diego combined for more kick-return yardage (461) Monday night than the total offensive yardage of either team.”

Lessons for Next Week:

This week’s theme:  Abject failure.  Skip the lessons and we’ll go right to the week 7 picks.

 As always, next week’s picks will be posted on Friday.  Email your picks to me at JoeMayes981@gmail.com before Sunday’s kickoff.  If you beat me for the year, you’ll win a Complete360 t-shirt of your choice (check choices at Complete360.net).

And remember:  Only you can pick worse than Smokey Joe.  Or not.

 

~ Smokey Joe

Joe Mayes NFL

So - the video. Now, UF fans, agree?

October 19th, 2009
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This is not a hater statement. This is purely “look at the video and tell me what you think.”

Seriously. This morning, we had an Arkansas fan come on board and tell us that the referees were the MVP for Florida. I had to tell him “no, penalties don’t change the game.”

Now, after SEEING the game, I challenge those of you who ran him to watch this. If you can honestly post in the comment section say that you don’t have a problem … well, I was going to give you a tshirt. But Marc Ryan would end up with a new wardrobe.

rb

Rob Brown General

Smokey Joe’s NFL Week 6 Picks

October 16th, 2009
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These picks are provided for entertainment purposes only.  If you gamble, bet only what you can lose.  If you gamble using these picks as a guide, you’ll probably lose it all..

This week’s byes:  Dallas, Indianapolis (finally…a way to slow Peyton Manning down), Miami, and San Francisco.

VISIT LINE HOME Pick/Comment
HOU +4.5 CIN Cincinnati and lay the points.  When you think about the Bengals offense, you think of Carson Palmer.  But led by Cedric Benson (yes, THAT Cedric Benson) and his 487 yards through 5 games, the Bengals are a top 10 rushing team.  Cincinnati is riding high and will be at home.  They win by a touchdown.
NYG +3 NO Giants and the points.  The NFL at its absolute finest and a preview of the NFC Championship game.  Two teams playing at the top of their games:  both are ranked in the top 5 in scoring, yardage, and rushing offense.  The Giants are #1 in pass defense and yards allowed and #2 in scoring defense.  Saints are top 10 in scoring D, yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed.  Giants are +6 in takeaway/giveaway, the Saints +7.  Just wow.  In a game this evenly matched, take the points, then sit back and enjoy.
DET +13.5 GB Green Bay and lay the points.  Green Bay’s offense can post points quickly, averaging 26.0 ppg.  The Lions are a middle-of-the-pack [pun intended] offense, averaging just over 100 ypg on the ground, 218.8 through the air, and 20.6 ppg.  The difference will be turnovers, where the Packers are +7 and the Lions are -3.
CLE +14.5 PIT Pittsburgh and lay the points.  Another Derek Anderson 2 for 17 day won’t cut it against a Steelers team that’s allowing fewer than 20 ppg.  Coming off back-to-back wins in which Rashard Mendenhall has averaged 121 rushing yards, look for the Steelers to shut out a Browns team that’s averaging just 11 ppg.
KC +6.5 WAS Washington and lay the points.  Look for the Redskins anemic (14.6 ppg) offense to get jump-started against a Chiefs team that is allowing 27.6 ppg.  Kansas City is at least a touchdown worse than the bottom of the NFC East barrel.
CAR -3.5 TB Tampa Bay and the points.  Josh Johnson is starting to get comfortable with the Bucs offense and Cadillac Williams and his 4.1 ypc average should get a big boost against a Panthers team allowing 155.5 yards per game on the ground.
STL +10 JAC Jacksonville and lay the points.  Of course, this depends on which Jaguars team shows up:  the one that dominated Houston and Tennessee in consecutive weeks or the one that flopped against Arizona in week 2 and even worse against the Seahawks in week 5.  Look for a bounceback at home with David Garrard picking up where he left off on Oct 4 against the Titans.  That and the fact that the Rams are historically bad.
BAL +2.5 MIN Minnesota and lay the points.  The Vikes boast a balanced offense, averaging 116.6 yards per game on the ground and 216.0 ypg through the air.  The Ravens have all the motivation in the world, coming off back-to-back against the Pats and Bengals but Brett Favre is playing too well — 9 TDs, just 2 picks, and a 104.1 passer rading — and the Ravens defense has started looking just a little bit long in the tooth.
PHI -14.5 OAK Philadelphia and lay the points.  The Eagles are averaging 31.8 ppg against NFL defenses and the Raiders don’t even qualify as an NFL defense.  Opponents are rushing for 161.0 ypg, passing for another 221.0, and scoring at a 26.0 ppg clip against the men in Silver and Black.  As ugly as things have been for the Raiders, they’re fixin’ to get uglier.  Eagles by 3 touchdowns in this one.
ARI +3 SEA Seattle and lay the points.  With QB Matt Hasselbeck back under center, the Seahawks are a whole different team.  With Arizona, you get the same old team, averaging nearly 280 ypg through the air but struggling on the ground (31st in the NFL, rushing for just 56.5 ypg.  Seahawks by a touchdown in this one.
TEN +9.5 NE New England and lay the points.  Surprisingly, the Pats are struggling to put points on the board, averaging just 20.8 ppg.  Also surprisingly, the Titans defense under D-coordinator Chuck Cecil, is struggling to keep opponents out of the end zone, allowing 27.8 ppg and 3.2 TDs per game.  Last week was a critical week for Tennessee and they came up short against the Colts.  Again surprisingly, look for a Titans emotional let-down…rare in the NFL following a loss.
BUF +10 NYJ NYJ and lay the points.  Buffalo is a mess, averaging less than a TD per game over the last three, including the ignominious 6-3 loss at the hands of the aforementioned 2 for 17 Derek Anderson.  The Bills feeble attempts at a passing game (172.6 ypg) is bolstered by a top-10 rushing attack (117.6 ypg) but the Jets D is playing inspired.  Turnovers — the Bills are -6 in takeaway/giveaway — will provide the Jets with plenty of points to cover.
CHI +3.5 ATL The Falcons are coming off their 45-10 dismantling of the 49ers and are 3-1 mainly on the strength of their passing game (240.0 ypg).  Matt Ryan has thrown 7 TDs, has just 2 picks, and has been sacked just twice en route to a 102.9 passer rating.  The Bears are allowing 226.0 ypg through the air so look for a lot of sparks in Atlanta this week.
DEN +3.5 SD Denver and take the points.  Philip Rivers has gotten virtually no help from the Chargers running game that is dead last in the NFL, averaging 53.8 ypg on the ground.  Against a Denver defense that leads the NFL in points allowed (8.6 ppg, 5.6 points better than the Giants at #2) and is allowing just 252.8 total yards per game, a one-dimensional Chargers’ offense will be in for a loooong day.

Joe Mayes General, NFL

So.. I need to update more, and I feel like this is the best place to start…

October 15th, 2009
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Are you a college football player with a big heart? Do you feel like your sensitivity has no place in football? Are you worried that your feelings might be laughed at at a big school?

Well worry not. There’s a place you can go where your coach will help you express your feelings during a game. There’s a place where your coach has no problem showing that you ARE special, and you CAN be a sensitive guy, while playing football.

Questions? Watch:

(Before it goes: I apologize for the title of the video - I can’t find one that doesn’t have a title and I promised I’d put it up. So, let’s all be adults and behave ourselves…)

awwww…….. how sweet!

-rb

Rob Brown General

Week 5: Offense (and Defense and Special Teams) Wins Games

October 13th, 2009
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This week’s results: 7-7.  Had to rely on Sunday and Monday night victories to avoid my first sub-.500 week of the year.  Colts and Dolphins are my new bestest buddies.

Season to date: 39-37 (51%). 

Nailed It! calls of the week:

  • “Donovan McNabb comes back after suffering broken ribs in week 1 and Andy Reid seems to have settled on working Michael Vick into the offense only to the extent that it doesn’t disrupt the flow of the offense.  DeSean Jackson gives the Eagles a stretch-the-field receiver McNabb has never had and the Eagles are racking up better than 30 ppg.  This is a lot of points but Philadelphia is a lot of football team.”  McNabb goes 16-21 for 264, 3 TDs and no picks.  Vick attempted 3 passes and 4 runs.  Replace DeSean Jackson with Jeremy Maclin (6 for 142, 2 TDs) and this prediction would have been perfect.
  • “Peyton Manning is coming as close as I’ve ever seen to perfecting the art and science of playing quarterback.  This is pretty much a do-or-die week for Tennessee but there is little hope of slowing down the Colts offense.”  I’m almost embarrassed to take this one because Manning is almost automatic.  He was stupid good in week 5, completing 82% of his passes as he recorded his fifth consecutive 300+ yard passing day to open 2009 en route to a 22-point win over the now hapless Titans.
  • “The Dolphins will rely on their strategy of running the ball (leading the NFL with 183.5 ppg) and controlling the clock while Chad Henne develops into an NFL quarterback.”  The Dolphins still lead the NFL in rushing (barely…the Giants are just 3 rushing yards behind Miami on the year) but in just Henne’s second NFL start, the reason for the excitement about him in Miami became apparent.  Against the Jets, he was 20-26, 241 yards, 2 TDs, and—at least in Bill Parcells’ book—most importantly, zero interceptions.  The wait for Henne to “develop” may be over.  If that’s the case, the AFC East race just got more interesting.

Aw, Crap! calls of the week:

  • The first Aw, Crap! of the week is for failing to post my prediction of a winner in the Pittsburgh-Detroit matchup.  I could have jacked my record up by tweaking the post to show that I “picked” Detroit to cover the 10.5.  But that’d be dishonest and I thought the Steelers would cover so I’m left muttering, “Aw, Crap!” to myself.
  • Two games in which I completely drank the Kool-Aid and believed the teams were actually better than they are.  Both lost enormous blowouts:
    • “SF is somehow scoring 25.5 points per game while allowing just 13.3, 2nd in the NFL.  Atlanta is scoring 19.0 ppg against a pretty tough schedule but the coast-to-coast road trip and the 49ers at home is worth the 2.5 point difference.”   Final:  Atlanta 45, San Francisco 10.
    • “Jacksonville and QB David Garrard has been playing well on offense.  Seahawk QB Matt Hasselbeck will be back under center and the Seahawks are a different team with him there.  However, they have lost both starting tackles so Matt’s return may be short lived.”  Final:  Seattle 41, Jacksonville 0.

Freak Stat of the Week:

·         Derek Anderson’s stat line against hapless Buffalo:  2 of 17, 0 TD, 1 int for a passer rating of 15.1.  This is significant for two reasons.  First, it’s the first time in NFL history that a quarterback had a passer rating lower than the number of passes attempted.  Second, it gave JaMarcus Russell hope that the Raiders could actually win another game this season.

Lessons for Next Week:

This week’s theme:  Blinding flashes of the obvious.

·         Five teams have a points-for/points-against (PFPA) margin of greater than 50:  New York Giants (+80), New Orleans (+78), Minnesota (+66), Indianapolis (+66), and Denver (+56).  Collective record for these five teams:  24-0.  Moral?  If you score more than you allow, you win.

·         Seven teams have a PFPA margin of more than -50:  St Louis (-112), Oakland (-81), Tampa Bay (-72), Cleveland (-66), Detroit (-59), Tennessee (-55), and Kansas City (-54).  Collective record:  3-32.  Moral?  If you allow more than you score, you lose.

·         The four highest rated passers in the NFL are the Manning Brothers (Peyton – 114.1, Eli – 111.7), Drew Brees (108.4), and Brett Favre (104.1).  The collective record of their teams:  19-0.

·         The top four rushers in the NFL are Cedric Benson (487), Adrian Peterson (481), Chris Johnson (468), and Steven Jackson (451).  The collective records of their teams:  9- 11.

·         The previous lesson is deceptive.  The top five rushing teams are a collective 19-5, meaning good teams aren’t relying on a single productive running back; rather, they are building running games with multiple backs.  For example, the Dolphins have two backs in the top 14, New Orleans has two in the top 30, Dallas has 3 in the top 30, the Giants have 2 in the top 10, and Denver has 2 in the top 21.

·         Steve Smith (North) has nearly double the number of catches (37 to 20), nearly twice the receiving yards (481 to 255), and 4 more touchdowns (4 to 0) than Steve Smith (South).  Can we finally, officially start calling Carolina’s Smith “the other Steve Smith?”

·         The Seahawks with Matt Hasselbeck are like Erin Andrews.  The Seahawks without Hassellbeck are like Andrea Kremer.  Both ostensibly do the same thing but one just looks so much better doing it than the other.

·         The Rams are horrible.  We’re talking Boise-State-was-afraid-to-schedule-them-for-fear-of-hurting-their-BCS-ranking horrible.  They are last in the NFL in points scored (6.8 ppg) and next-to-last in the NFL in points allowed (29.2 ppg).  They are second in the league in penalties (39) and fourth in the NFL in penalty yards (325).  They are averaging 281.0 yards over their five games meaning their penalty yards have wiped out more than an entire game’s worth of offensive production.  For every 4 yards they’ve gained, they’ve given 1 back.

·         I told you these were blinding flashes of the obvious.

 

As always, next week’s picks will be posted on Friday.  Email your picks to me at JoeMayes981@gmail.com before Sunday’s kickoff.  If you beat me for the year, you’ll win a Complete360 t-shirt of your choice (check choices at Complete360.net).

And remember:  Only you can prevent Peyton Manning.  On second thought, NOBODY can prevent Peyton Manning.

 

~ Smokey Joe

 

 

 

Joe Mayes NFL

Smokey Joe’s NFL Week 5 Picks

October 9th, 2009
No comments

Whatever you do, do NOT bet these picks.  I mean it.

 

VISIT LINE HOME Pick/Comment
CIN +8.5 BAL Cincinnati and the points.  Baltimore is at home after suffering their first loss of the season and is outscoring the Bengals by 10 points per game.  But Cincinnati has shown they’re for real, losing to Denver on a fluke play and beating Green Bay and Pittsburgh.  Baltimore will win at home but by less than a touchdown.
MIN -10.5 STL Minnesota and lay the points.  The Rams are 27th in the NFL in points allowed (27.0) and dead last in points scored (6.0).  The Vikes are scoring nearly 30 a game.  The math is easy:  Vikings easily cover against a terrible Rams team.
PIT -10.5 DET With Stafford out (or at best banged up), the Lions will take  a step backwards.  Rashard Mendenhall got Mike Tomlin’s message and went off on San Diego for 165 yards in week 4 and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry.  Look for more of the same against a Lions defense that is allowing more than 120 rushing yards per game.
DAL -8.5 KC Dallas and lay the points.  Dallas is perhaps the most overrated team in the NFL but Kansas City is struggling to score points (16.0 ppg) and the Cowboys defense is starting to fulfill its potential, allowing just 12.0 ppg over the past two weeks.
OAK +15.5 NYG NYG and lay the points.  Eli Manning showed no ill-effects from his foot injury in practice late in the week and the Raiders are, well, they’re gawdawful.  The largest point spread of the year so far is reserved for the largest embarassment in the NFL:  your Oakland Raiders.
TB +15.5 PHI Eagles and lay the points.  Donovan McNabb comes back after suffering broken ribs in week 1 and Andy Reid seems to have settled on working Michael Vick into the offense only to the extent that it doesn’t disrupt the flow of the offense.  DeSean Jackson gives the Eagles a stretch-the-field receiver McNabb has never had and the Eagles are racking up better than 30 ppg.  This is a lot of points but Philadelphia is a lot of football team.
WAS +3.5 CAR Washington and the points.  Jason Campbell may not be the quarterback to win big games but Carolina is a mess.  Both teams are struggling — can I pick both to lose? — but go with the Redskins on the basis of more individual talent and pray Jim Zorn doesn’t screw it up.
CLE +6 BUF Buffalo and lay the points. Cleveland is struggling to score points (12.3 ppg), stop the run (allowing 176.8 ypg), and hold onto the ball (-7 in giveaway/takeaway).  Buffalo’s not much better but they’ll be more than a touchdown better than Cleveland at home.  Look for T.O. to triple his touchdown total (1) in week 5 against a Browns pass defense that is allowing 226.5 yards per game.
ATL +2.5 SF San Francisco and lay the points.  SF is somehow scoring 25.5 points per game while allowing just 13.3, 2nd in the NFL.  Atlanta is scoring 19.0 ppg against a pretty tough schedule but the coast-to-coast road trip and the 49ers at home is worth the 2.5 point difference.
HOU +5.5 ARI Houston and the points.  Arizona has been relying on its offense to outscore their opponents, allowing nearly 23 ppg.  Houston is still up and down but Matt Schaub’s passer rating is still hovering around 100 and the Texans take better care of the ball (+1 giveaway/takeaway) than the Cards (-2).
JAC - SEA Jacksonville straight up.  Weird…one service has a “pick ‘em” line and the other four have nothing.  Jacksonville and QB David Garrard has been playing well on offense.  Seahawk QB Matt Hasselbeck will be back under center and the Seahawks are a different team with him there.  However, they have lost both starting tackles so Matt’s return may be short lived.
NE -3.5 DEN New England and lay the points.  Denver starts a four week stretch that runs Pats, Chargers, Bye, Ravens.  This will be the stretch to define their season.  The Patriots middling rush offense took a hit losing Fred Taylor but their rotation of Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk should more than carry his load. 
IND -4 TEN Indy and lay the points.  Peyton Manning is coming as close as I’ve ever seen to perfecting the art and science of playing quarterback.  This is pretty much a do-or-die week for Tennessee but there is little hope of slowing down the Colts offense.
NYJ -1.5 MIA Miami and the points.  The Dolphins will rely on their strategy of running the ball (leading the NFL with 183.5 ppg) and controling the clock while Chad Henne develops into an NFL quarterback.  The Dolphins defense will try to force Mark Sanchez to turn the ball over (as New Orleans did last week) and with Joey Porter back, the pressure will be on the rookie QB.
       
    BYE CHI, GB, NO, SD

Joe Mayes NFL

Week 4: Take off the skirt!

October 6th, 2009
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This week’s results: 7-7.

Season to date: 32-30.  We’re a quarter of the way through the 2009 NFL season and I’m at 52%.  Unfortunately, the break-even point is 54%.  Fortunately, there is still a lot of football left.

Nailed It! calls of the week:

  • “Sanchez has not made the big mistakes yet this year but rookie quarterbacks ALWAYS have those games.  This is Sanchez’ week to lose one for the Jets.”  Sanchez had a pick-6 and fumbled in the end zone for a Saints TD.  Total of 14 points, incidentally the margin of the Saint’s victory on Sunday.
  • “Miami is not as bad as they’ve looked in starting 0-3.  Buffalo is worse than their 1-2.  The only thing that will prevent the Dolphins from winning this outright (and, of course, covering) is turnovers.”  The Dolphins did not turn the ball over this week against a struggling Buffalo team and controlled the clock for more than 37 minutes while rushing for 250 yards in notching their first victory of 2009.

Aw, Crap! calls of the week:

  • “Tennessee and lay the points.  Tennessee cannot possibly be as bad as their 0-3 start would indicate.  Right?  Jack Del Rio seems to have lost the Jags and is holding on like a jilted girlfriend three weeks before prom.  Tennessee wins by 10 and by week 8, Wayne Weaver will run Del Rio out on Del rail.”  Wow…wrong at every turn.  Jacksonville controlled the clock and David Garrard played like a Pro Bowler.  And Tennessee may, talent notwithstanding, be as bad a team as their 0-4 record would indicate.
  • “Denver’s 3-0 start is smoke and mirrors…”  The Broncos earned their gold star against the Cowboys.  After falling down 10-0 in the first quarter, the Broncos play reflected the attitude of first year head coach Josh McDaniels:  gritty, defiant, and refused to quit.  Of course, allowing just 6.5 points per game doesn’t hurt, either.  Not ready to anoint the Broncos as Super Bowl favorites but through four games, they look to be for real.

Freak Stat of the Week:

·         Thirty-eight individual players are averaging at least as many points per game as the entire St Louis Rams team (6 ppg).

·         Bonus, from Gregg Easterbrook at the Four-Letter network:  “Brett Favre became the all-time NFL leader in ‘first quarterback to …’ stats.”  Nice, Gregg.

Lessons for Next Week:

This week’s theme:  The one-quarter mark!

·         In week 1, 8 of 16 (50%) favorites won and covered.  In week 2, 6 of 16 (38%); week 3, 11 of 16 (69%); week 4, 6 of 14 (43%).  For the season, that’s 31 of 62 (50%).

·         Home field advantage didn’t appear to be much of an advantage until week 4.  In the first three weeks, the home team won 25 of 48 games (52%).  In week 4, however, the home team won 12 of 14 tilts (86%).

·         The collective record of the seven teams who opened the season with new quarterbacks:  15-13.

·         The collective 2009 record of the 2008 AFC Playoff teams is 12-12.

·         The collective 2009 record of the 2008 NFC Playoff teams is 13-7.

·         Two of the 2008 playoff teams (Tennessee and Carolina) are winless thus far in 2009.

·         The fact that the Raiders are currently 1-3 tells you just how truly awful the Chiefs are.

·         As bad as the Lions were in 2008, the Rams may be even worse.  I wonder if it’s possible for them to lose MORE than 16 games in a single season.

·         The Rams and Raiders might be the two worst football teams I’ve ever watched.  I wonder if Los Angeles misses having an NFL team.

 

As always, next week’s picks will be posted on Friday.  Email your picks to me at JoeMayes981@gmail.com before Sunday’s kickoff.  If you beat me for the year, you’ll win a Complete360 t-shirt of your choice (check choices at Complete360.net).

And remember:  Only Tony Romo can count to four.  No, wait…

 

~ Smokey Joe

Joe Mayes NFL