Rarely one to take a hard-and-fast position on issues of the day (unless it’s to antagonize Rob), I listened with interest (and to antagonize Rob) to the debate of whether or not “defense wins championships.”
In order to evaluate the issue free of emotion, I decided to go to the numbers, those irrefutable, immutable facts upon which all sports wisdom is based (keeping in mind, of course, that figures don’t lie but liars figure).
The question, as I understood it, was whether or not defense wins championships in today’s NFL. Rob contended that balance is the key, a very reasonable starting point.
But do the facts from the past ten Super Bowls bear this out?
Since the 2000 Super Bowl (following the 1999 season), teams with the NFL’s #1 ranked scoring offense and defense have appeared in the Super Bowl four times each (four times for the #1 offense, four times for the #1 defense). The #1 rated offense has won exactly 1 Super Bowl (St Louis over Tennessee in SB XXXIV) but has lost three times.
Conversely, the teams with the #1 defense won all four of the Super Bowls in which they appeared.
Obviously some high-powered offenses have played in – and won – the big game. The Rams and Patriots were winners in the big game. However, a closer look at these squads reveals that the St Louis and New England teams that won Super Bowls had defenses ranked no lower than #6. St Louis was #4 during the 1999 season and the victorious Patriots teams had, in chronological order, the #6 (2001 season), #1 (2003), and #2 (2004) ranked scoring defenses in the NFL.
During this same period, three #1 ranked offenses have lost the Super Bowl; the 2001 Rams, 2006 Seahawks, and the 2007 Patriots. (As a side-note, during this ten-year period, the Kansas City Chiefs had the #1 rated offense twice, in 2002 and 2003.
The lowest rated offenses to win the Super Bowl, and the only two to finish in the bottom half of the league that season, were the 2002 Buccaneers (#18) and the 2008 Steelers (#20). The lowest rated defenses to win a Super Bowl were the 2006 Indianapolis Colts (#23) and the 2007 Giants (#17…yes, the “defensive” team that beat the undefeated Patriots in SB XLII). Other than these, the lowest rated defense to win a SB is the 2001 Patriots, at #6.
The lowest rated scoring defense to ever reach the Super Bowl is the 2008 Arizona Cardinals, at #28.
These are all interesting facts but don’t address the question of balance. To assess this, I looked at the differences between the offensive and defensive rankings for a team during a Super Bowl season (win or lose).
Only twice has the difference been more than 20: 2006 Colts (won with #2 offense and #23 defense, a difference of 21) and the 2008 Cardinals (lost with #4 offense and #28 defense, diff of 24). Twice has the difference been 0: 2001 Patriots (#6 and #6) and the 2006 Bears (#3 and #3…yes, you read that right. The Bears had the #3 scoring offense during the 2006 season).
Of the twenty teams in the ten Super Bowls, the difference between the offensive and defensive rankings has been single digits (including 0) 13 times. This would imply that balance is key, right?
Well, maybe not. Of the ten winners, five have had single digit ranking differences. Eight of the ten losers had, on paper, more “balanced” teams.
Of course, this is just a quick look at the participants in the Super Bowls over the previous ten years. Yes, eight out of ten losers were “balanced” but doesn’t the fact that they were even in the Super Bowl speak to the success of the team?
The conclusion I reach from all this is that there is no single determinant for success in the NFL. Sometimes offense wins championships, sometimes defense, and sometimes balance. The most recent Steelers championship team stands in stark contrast to the 2006 Colts team. Chicago’s balance in 2006 led them to the Promised Land but they were nonetheless denied manna from the football gods.
There is no one, absolute answer for whether or not “defense wins championships.” But there is one absolute fact on which you can bank, day-after-day, season-after-season.
I will continue to do all that is in my power to antagonize Rob.
~ Smokey Joe
Joe Mayes General
Recent Blog Post Comments