Finally: it’s game week. Finally, we can all sit down together and share a beer while we watch teams we don’t care about pound the hell out of teams we care less about. But hey - we’ll take it. Bad football is greater than no football at all, yes?
That being said: let’s make some fearless predictions on the SEC season of 2010.
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OFFENSIVE MVP:
Took me quite a few minutes to come up with this one - mostly because I had to figure out if you could put one 1,000 yard rusher in the MVP spot when you have two of them on the same team. Is one guy with 1,200 yards really heads and shoulders more valuable then a guy with 1,300 yards? That certainly will be the case with Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson at Alabama. The fact is, without one of these guys, the other one easily doubles his rushing yards (with double the carries,) and becomes a runaway favorite for the SEC’s MVP title. However, when you have a pair of guys producing at the same level, one can’t be “most valuable.”
However, at Arkansas plays a quarterback named Ryan Mallett - a 6′5″ monster of a man who Peyton Manning looks up to. No, seriously - Peyton is 6′4″, he’s shorter than Mallett. And statistically, his UT career may end up coming short of Mallett’s as well, should Mallett continue where he left off last year. Only two games (LSU and Alabama) did Mallett have a passer rating below 100, and five contests he skyrocketed past 300 yards in the air - including on a few SEC defenses - while three games he found end zone five times.
The 20-17 victory over upstart East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl certainly wasn’t the season finale Mallett wanted. Don’t be surprised to see him come out with a bone to pick with the rest of the SEC.
Of course, the big question will be: can Mallett score enough to keep up with the “VISITORS” side of the scoreboard that will look like a slot machine with the way opponents score points against Arkansas’s defense?
DEFENSIVE MVP:
With defenses being the strength of the SEC (ask any SEC fan, they’ll scream at you until you’re read in the face if you don’t agree,) this might have been even tougher to pick then the offensive side of the football where it was pretty much limited to Alabama RB’s v. Arkansas QB.
On this side we see All-Americans all over the field. Linebackers from four teams were considered, defensive linemen from 4 and defensive backs from .. well, almost every single team .. were nominated.
And one of them won.
Patrick Peterson might be the best defensive back in the country this year - and there are some very good ones. Peterson entered LSU as a five star recruit, and has not disappointed. While his stats from the 2009 season were anything but stellar, they were WELL above average as a sophomore in his first year as a starter. And a good portion of the reason they were average? Teams don’t throw to his side. They know better. He’s a Darrell Revis type player: a guy who can lock down an entire half of the field just by being there. Quarterbacks don’t throw at him, and the best WR’s are typically found on the other side of the pitch. Last year, he all but shutdown two of the best receivers in the conference holding both A.J. Green of Georgia and Julio Jones of Alabama to very substandard performances.
While Dont’a Hightower of Alabama may end up being better than first round draft pick Rolando McClain was in the same position, and Ole Miss defensive lineman Jerrell Powe may dominate offensive lines all year long. But the difference is while we MAY see those two guys doing they’re thing, we KNOW we’ll see Peterson shutting down passing offenses - at least, Les Miles better hope so. Those pants are getting a bit warm…
SURPRISE TEAM:
The Auburn Tigers were so close last year. Not to a winning season, no. To something far more important.
To beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl and ruining their perfect season. At the time, it looked like first year coach Gene Chizik was well on his way to endearing himself to Auburn fans in a way no one would’ve possibly imagined when fans were booing him upon his arrival to the Plains.
All of the sudden, with three and most of the fourth quarter over, Auburn found themselves leading the heavy favorite before a 79 yard heartbreaker of a game winning drive propelled Alabama to the SEC championship game, and propelled Auburn fans out of Jordan-Hare with broken hearts - and incredibly high aspirations for the future.
And this year, the Tigers will live up to them. With all they put on the field last year, and all the additions they made (including the addition of former five star recruit and former Florida Gator Cameron Newton at quarterback) over the offeseason, as well as the breakout of defensive players such as Josh Bynes, how can they NOT be better? This is a team that gave us only a 3-5 record in the SEC last year. But, then again, with games against #2 Alabama (an almost win,) and at #10 LSU (while they were on a hot streak,) and a run between the hedges at Georgia.
This year, with dramatically improved quarterback play and Mario Fannin replacing the NFL drafted Ben Tate, as well as a slew of other play makers who have stepped up in the preseason, this Auburn team could be good. Scary good.
MOST DISAPPOINTING TEAM:
South Carolina. What’s the difference between this year and last year’s team? Freshman running back Marcus Lattimore, a guy wanted by Alabama, and Florida, and Florida State .. and, well, just about everyone else in the south. But, other than that, it’s another where Coach Steve Spurrier has set the bar high, and done so for a team that can’t possibly reach it. Stephen Garcia is a great quarterback. Just ask him. The rest of the SEC disagrees, but he doesn’t. Coach Spurrier has continued to call him out for disappointing play in the preseason and, outside of Lattimore, who else is going to pick up that slack?
The defense is mediocre and nothing more than average in the SEC, and can’t be relied to make up points in games where the offense sputters.
Last year, this category was held by an Ole Miss team I correctly predicted would lose at least three games, and it was tough not to pick them again this year - but the expectations on the Runnin’ Rebels has dropped dramatically and risen for the Gamecocks.
BREAKOUT PLAYER:
Julio Jones from Alabama. Sound stupid? I know, I know: “he’s listed as one of the best receivers in the SEC!”
In 2008, Julio had 924 yards and four touchdowns. In 2009, a year plagued by injury for the big man, he recorded only 596 yards and duplicated his four TD performance.
Why is he a breakout player this year when expectations were so high from the beginning?
Nick Saban. He’s learned. And he’s realized that in order to repeat he needs to use ALL of his available weaponry - not just the two rumblers he’s got in the running back stable. Greg McElroy may very well prove to be one of the most efficient and accurate passers in the game, and as any good mama will tell her cute daughter: “if you got it, flaunt it!”
The Tim Tebow effect was that players could not lock double teams or roll coverage to the side of the best Florida receivers, knowing full well that overloads or double teams leading to open areas meant Timmy would take off. The Tebow effect is in full play with the running backs of Alabama. Taking men out of the box to double cover Julio means Richardson and Ingram will go bonkers on a defense - this leaves Julio in a LOT of one-on-one coverages, healthy, and with a very accurate passer to hit him in stride.
Julio will easily have 1,350 yards and nine touchdowns this year. Breakout? Sure, why not.
NEW GUY AWARD:
This one was tough, if only because two guys, both new to their programs, and at the same position, are in the running.
Cameron Newton at Auburn may turn out to be their saving grace. Not that last year was a BAD year for Auburn, but how many games do they win with a quarterback who can make the mid-range pass AND goes dangerous outside of the pocket?
The wild card is Jeremiah Masoli, the former Oregon Duck who now will run the spot at Ole Miss after Houston Nutt gave him the opportunity to walk on and play. Masoli is a former Heisman candidate before leaving Oregon, and for some reason has dropped off the radar of most spectators.
I’ve got to give the nod here to Newton. While Masoli will be fighting for his position (I don’t think any further then week three, he’ll be deeply ingrained as the starter by then,) Newton was clearly the man from week one. And he’ll be playing for a team that until the final week of the season will be in the mix for an SEC Western Division Championship. Newton is a big, strong, powerful guy who can run the football as well, and will score some … ::sigh:: … “Tebowesque” touchdowns from his spot. This guy is gonna be a huge plus for the War Eagle Tigers.
COACH OF THE YEAR:
This one is going to be tough, mainly because I think the coach that wins the National Championship - if it happens - instantly becomes your guy. I can think of three that fly to the top of the list and a few dark horses as well. Nick Saban is the coach of the defending National Champs. Urban Meyer will be winning the SEC East and giving Coach Saban a run for his money. Gene Chizik has turned doubters into believers and optimists in just one year and looks to improve on that record. Houston Nutt would LOVE to jump into the discussion based on a spectacular season to make up for a disappointing one last year, and Steve Spurrier at South Carolina will hope Marcus Lattimore can put him into the discussion as well.
But I’m going to go back to Auburn here as well. Man, if I there, you’d call me a homer, wouldn’t you?
Here’s why Gene Chizik is my guy: results. Alabama is going to be a one loss team this year, and either Florida or Auburn in the Iron Bowl will be that squad. Auburn will lose two games. But look at where they’re coming from. In two years to bring Auburn from mediocrity to a two loss program, whereas Saban will let Alabama go from National Title game to fighting for their SEC lives during the regular season, gives Gene the nudge over coach Saban. Urban .. well, in the eastern division, you’re just not getting the same love.
That’s all for now. Look for your TEAM nominations, “New Guy” award, game of the year, fearless predictions .. and of course, your CONFERENCE predictions, soon to come!
(Oh, and for those of you who like ACC football .. HA! .. maybe if you’re lucky I’ll get yours soon too.)
–rb3
Rob Brown General
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